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☆ US job growth probably slowed in October due to UAW strike
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The anticipated moderation in employment growth last month would also be pay back after September's enormous gains, the largest in eight months. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to show labor market conditions steadily easing, with annual wage growth the smallest in nearly 2-1/2 years and significant growth in the supply of workers. Manufacturing payrolls are forecast falling 10,000 after advancing 17,000 in September. Last week, the BLS reported at least 30,000 UAW members were on strike during the period it surveyed businesses for October's employment report. Wages gains would still be above the 3.5% that economists say is consistent with the Fed's 2% target.

Persons: Brian Snyder, Detroit's, Sam Bullard, payrolls, Veronica Clark, we've, Sung Won Sohn, we're, Brian Bethune, that's, Lucia Mutikani, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Taylor Party, Equipment Rentals, REUTERS, UAW, United Auto Workers, Labor, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Manufacturing, BLS, Citigroup, UPS, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Boston College, Thomson Locations: Somerville , Massachusetts, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles

☆ US third-quarter economic growth seen fastest in nearly 2 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While the anticipated robust growth pace notched last quarter is probably not sustainable, it would demonstrate the economy's resilience despite aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP likely increased at a 4.3% annualized rate last quarter, which would be the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2021. Others are not too concerned, noting the labor market continues to churn out jobs at a solid clip. Growth last quarter was also seen lifted by a smaller trade deficit, thanks to strong exports and increased inventory investment. But the labor dispute, which is costing auto makers millions of dollars per week, could weigh on growth in the fourth quarter.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Joe Biden's, Sal Guatieri, Luke Tilley, it's, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Brian Bethune, Lucia Mutikani, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Business, WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, BMO Capital Markets, Consumer, Wilmington Trust, Labor, Labor Department, U.S, Treasury, Financial, Group's, BNP, Boston College, Thomson Locations: Brooklyn , New York City, U.S, Toronto, American, Wilmington, Philadelphia, New York

☆ Hollywood strike, Yellow bankruptcy likely restrained US job growth in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

As such, economists are cautioning against reading too much into any sharp deceleration in job gains when the Labor Department's publishes its closely watched employment report on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 170,000 jobs last month after rising 187,000 in July, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Still, employment growth would be more than the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Yellow Corp trucking filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in early August, leaving about 30,000 workers unemployed. "This (job growth) would be one more piece of evidence that would be consistent with that, but that also depends a lot on the upcoming inflation data."

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, it's, Brian Bethune, Nonfarm, payrolls, Conrad DeQuadros, Dean Maki, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Lucia Mutikani, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Boston College, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Federation of Television, Radio Artists, Yellow Corp, Brean, Point72, Management, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Stamford , Connecticut

☆ Slower US job, wage gains expected in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Nevertheless, the Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to still show the labor market remaining tight. PROGRESS ON INFLATIONBut the overall labor market remains upbeat, with first time applications for state unemployment benefits hovering at very low levels. Slowing wage inflation is corroborated by other measures like the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker, which has come off its peaks. Financial markets see a nearly 70% chance of the Fed keeping its policy rate unchanged at its June 13-14 meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the employment report, did not record the work stoppage in its May strike report.

Persons: Bill Adams, Brian Bethune, Nancy Vanden Houten, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Comerica Bank, Data, Labor Department, Atlanta, Boston College, Fed, Writers Guild of America, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: y WASHINGTON, Dallas, New York

☆ Strong US consumer spending seen driving economy in first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 2.0% annualized rate last quarter after rising at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter. Estimates ranged from a growth rate of 0.4% to a 3.3% pace. DOWNSIDE RISKSome institutions cut their GDP growth estimates, with Wells Fargo slashing its forecast by a full percentage point. Still, consumer spending is expected to have grown at a pace faster than the pedestrian 1.0% rate logged in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to be driven by demand for services.

☆ Slower, but still solid US job growth expected in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is also expected to show wage gains maintaining their upward trend, underscoring a persistently tight jobs market. Estimates for February payrolls growth ranged from as low as 78,000 to as high as 325,000. "This would indicate the anticipated normalization in the labor market is taking longer than expected," said Jan Groen, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities in New York. There's locational and skills mismatches, which basically means the labor market is not functioning efficiently," said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College. The Fed has to be careful about how they interpret what's going on in the labor market."

☆ U.S. job growth likely slowed again in November; labor market still tight
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But the labor market remains tight, with 1.7 job openings for every unemployed person in October, keeping the Fed on its monetary tightening path at least through the first half of 2023. Labor market strength is also one of the reasons economists believe an anticipated recession next year would be short and shallow. The labor market is still very strong and still very tight," said Agron Nicaj, U.S. economist at MUFG in New York. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 3.7%, consistent with a still-tight labor market. "I still believe the economy tips into a short and shallow recession mid-2023, based on eroding labor market growth, but the probability of no recession is now higher," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

☆ An economic index is flashing a recession warning sign, but it may be a 'mixed signal.' Here's what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Sarah O'Brien | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesA monthly gauge of what could lie ahead for the U.S. economy is flashing a recession warning sign. The Leading Economic Index dipped by 0.4% in September from August and is down 2.8% since March, according to the Conference Board, an independent group that publishes the index. The latest reading is below a threshold that the organization considers a recession signal. watch nowInitial jobless claims — another data point used in the index — also do not point to the kind of broad-based job loss that comes with a recession. "There are pockets of the labor market that have shed jobs, but it's not widespread job loss," he said.

☆ Your ‘personal inflation rate’ varies by where you live, among other factors
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Sarah O'Brien | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yet, depending on variables such as location and spending patterns, your personal rate of inflation could be better or worse than the national average. In September, prices overall were 8.2% higher than they were a year earlier, as measured by the consumer price index, or CPI. More from Personal Finance:How households are preparing for possible recessionThese colleges are promising zero student loansHere's the latest inflation breakdown — in one chartTake location, for instance. Some metro areas in the U.S. come with an overall inflation rate that's worse than the average, according to research from personal finance website WalletHub, which used data from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics to compile its study. And in Phoenix, the rate of yearly inflation in August was 13%.

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